Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Jin Hong Shun Auto Parts Co., Ltd. (603922.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.37 - $0.49$0.43
Multi-Stage$0.68 - $0.75$0.71
Blended Fair Value$0.57
Current Price$22.54
Upside-97.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-31.68%-29.28%0.020.000.040.020.030.150.260.100.101.10
YoY Growth--10,030.35%-99.39%116.84%-45.31%-79.73%-42.21%144.95%4.26%-90.88%56.31%
Dividend Yield--0.09%0.00%0.22%0.09%0.25%1.34%1.55%0.59%0.55%6.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.952.471.48
Cash Retained (M)18.5318.5318.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.95-2.47-1.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.5816.0617.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)180.22180.22180.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-11.04%-10.04%-9.04%
Fair Value$0.37$0.43$0.49
Upside / Downside-98.35%-98.08%-97.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.7417.7615.9814.3712.9311.6311.98
Payout Ratio6.14%22.91%39.68%56.46%73.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.214.076.348.129.4710.4711.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate-11.04%-10.04%-9.04%
Year 1 PV (M)3.663.703.74
Year 2 PV (M)5.135.255.37
Year 3 PV (M)5.916.126.32
Year 4 PV (M)6.216.496.79
Year 5 PV (M)6.186.536.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)94.99100.45106.16
Equity Value (M)122.09128.55135.29
Shares Outstanding (M)180.22180.22180.22
Fair Value$0.68$0.71$0.75
Upside / Downside-96.99%-96.84%-96.67%

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