Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Holsin Engineering Consulting Group Co.,Ltd. (603909.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.61 - $83.18$77.96
Multi-Stage$54.36 - $59.66$56.96
Blended Fair Value$67.46
Current Price$10.61
Upside535.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.32%17.84%0.080.050.060.070.090.140.100.030.020.03
YoY Growth--59.46%-14.34%-18.13%-21.60%-33.82%42.07%186.96%96.51%-35.91%73.25%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.49%0.51%0.58%0.95%1.75%0.90%0.29%0.09%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)109.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)77.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.8113.638.18
Cash Retained (M)77.7677.7677.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.81-13.63-8.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)55.9564.1369.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)260.69260.69260.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate-0.24%-0.24%-0.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.61$77.96$83.18
Upside / Downside565.46%634.74%684.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)109.04116.13123.68131.71140.28149.39153.88
Payout Ratio28.69%40.95%53.21%65.47%77.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.2847.5565.8186.24109.05134.45142.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.24%-0.24%-0.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)47.2247.6748.11
Year 2 PV (M)64.8966.1267.37
Year 3 PV (M)84.4386.8589.32
Year 4 PV (M)106.01110.08114.27
Year 5 PV (M)129.78136.05142.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,738.9314,402.5315,091.52
Equity Value (M)14,171.2514,849.3015,553.16
Shares Outstanding (M)260.69260.69260.69
Fair Value$54.36$56.96$59.66
Upside / Downside412.36%436.87%462.32%

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