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Definitive Analysis

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Jiayou International Logistics Co.,Ltd (603871.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.44 - $180.44$169.10
Multi-Stage$26.67 - $29.18$27.90
Blended Fair Value$98.50
Current Price$14.30
Upside588.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS62.89%0.00%0.550.210.140.190.130.050.030.000.060.10
YoY Growth--157.77%57.19%-28.07%40.53%180.00%40.00%0.00%-100.00%-34.78%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.04%1.67%1.41%3.95%3.05%1.23%0.64%0.00%1.46%2.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,061.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)513.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)548.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)212.35132.7279.63
Cash Retained (M)548.23548.23548.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-212.35-132.72-79.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)335.89415.52468.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,170.221,170.221,170.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.360.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.360.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.790.84
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$75.44$169.10$180.44
Upside / Downside427.56%1,082.50%1,161.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,061.741,130.751,204.251,282.531,365.891,454.671,498.31
Payout Ratio48.36%56.69%65.02%73.35%81.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)513.50641.04782.99940.681,115.561,309.211,385.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)596.18601.83607.48
Year 2 PV (M)677.23690.13703.15
Year 3 PV (M)756.69778.41800.54
Year 4 PV (M)834.57866.66899.67
Year 5 PV (M)910.89954.891,000.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,433.0228,758.0430,133.78
Equity Value (M)31,208.5832,649.9734,145.20
Shares Outstanding (M)1,170.221,170.221,170.22
Fair Value$26.67$27.90$29.18
Upside / Downside86.50%95.11%104.04%

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