Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Guangdong Hotata Technology Group Co.,Ltd. (603848.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.03 - $7.93$6.36
Multi-Stage$5.65 - $6.19$5.91
Blended Fair Value$6.14
Current Price$19.30
Upside-68.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.98%0.00%0.300.200.250.240.240.240.150.000.000.00
YoY Growth--48.77%-19.73%1.80%0.02%-0.02%61.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.13%1.35%1.74%1.81%1.90%2.03%0.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)201.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)200.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.2525.1615.10
Cash Retained (M)200.65200.65200.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.25-25.16-15.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)160.40175.50185.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)412.25412.25412.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.430.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate1.98%2.98%3.98%
Fair Value$5.03$6.36$7.93
Upside / Downside-73.94%-67.06%-58.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)201.27207.27213.46219.83226.39233.14240.13
Payout Ratio0.31%18.24%36.18%54.12%72.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.6237.8277.24118.98163.14209.83222.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate1.98%2.98%3.98%
Year 1 PV (M)34.0834.4134.74
Year 2 PV (M)62.7163.9465.19
Year 3 PV (M)87.0489.6292.26
Year 4 PV (M)107.54111.82116.22
Year 5 PV (M)124.63130.86137.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,911.202,006.762,106.10
Equity Value (M)2,327.192,437.422,551.86
Shares Outstanding (M)412.25412.25412.25
Fair Value$5.65$5.91$6.19
Upside / Downside-70.75%-69.37%-67.93%

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