Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Haitian Water Group Co.,Ltd (603759.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.20 - $114.79$107.57
Multi-Stage$17.80 - $19.49$18.63
Blended Fair Value$63.10
Current Price$7.70
Upside719.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS22.18%0.00%0.490.210.140.120.210.180.160.160.170.00
YoY Growth--129.34%51.00%21.89%-45.98%19.38%8.29%1.75%-6.82%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.79%2.90%1.46%1.15%1.47%1.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)264.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)178.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.8433.0219.81
Cash Retained (M)178.22178.22178.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.84-33.02-19.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)125.39145.20158.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)457.72457.72457.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.510.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$59.20$107.57$114.79
Upside / Downside668.89%1,297.03%1,390.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)264.19281.36299.65319.13339.87361.96372.82
Payout Ratio32.54%44.03%55.52%67.02%78.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85.96123.89166.37213.86266.82325.76344.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)115.42116.52117.61
Year 2 PV (M)144.42147.18149.95
Year 3 PV (M)172.97177.93182.99
Year 4 PV (M)201.06208.79216.75
Year 5 PV (M)228.71239.76251.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,286.487,638.428,003.82
Equity Value (M)8,149.078,528.598,922.36
Shares Outstanding (M)457.72457.72457.72
Fair Value$17.80$18.63$19.49
Upside / Downside131.21%141.98%153.15%

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