Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Hile Bio-Technology Co., Ltd. (603718.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.83 - $2.57$2.20
Multi-Stage$2.70 - $2.97$2.84
Blended Fair Value$2.52
Current Price$6.80
Upside-63.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.83%-6.45%0.040.060.000.010.010.010.070.060.060.24
YoY Growth---43.07%5,441.07%-77.06%-22.85%-49.92%-80.61%11.65%0.07%-74.11%227.45%
Dividend Yield--0.54%0.70%0.01%0.04%0.04%0.09%0.52%0.59%0.38%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)171.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.2721.4212.85
Cash Retained (M)170.10170.10170.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.27-21.42-12.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)135.83148.68157.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)585.22585.22585.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.51%-1.51%-0.51%
Fair Value$1.83$2.20$2.57
Upside / Downside-73.12%-67.71%-62.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)171.34168.76166.22163.71161.25158.82163.59
Payout Ratio0.72%18.58%36.43%54.29%72.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.2431.3560.5688.88116.33142.94151.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.51%-1.51%-0.51%
Year 1 PV (M)28.2228.5128.80
Year 2 PV (M)49.0550.0651.08
Year 3 PV (M)64.7966.8068.86
Year 4 PV (M)76.3279.5082.78
Year 5 PV (M)84.4088.8193.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,279.001,345.951,415.68
Equity Value (M)1,581.771,659.631,740.61
Shares Outstanding (M)585.22585.22585.22
Fair Value$2.70$2.84$2.97
Upside / Downside-60.25%-58.30%-56.26%

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