Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Henglin Home Furnishings Co.,Ltd (603661.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$180.06 - $400.80$375.60
Multi-Stage$60.86 - $66.57$63.66
Blended Fair Value$219.63
Current Price$31.62
Upside594.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.72%0.00%0.661.691.240.310.410.280.660.000.010.94
YoY Growth---61.05%36.95%295.81%-23.31%45.68%-57.68%28,626.61%-76.56%-98.96%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.24%3.78%3.55%1.20%0.92%1.13%2.48%0.01%0.02%1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)275.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)158.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)117.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.1734.4820.69
Cash Retained (M)117.11117.11117.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.17-34.48-20.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)61.9482.6396.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)136.88136.88136.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.600.70
LTM Dividend per Share1.161.161.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.600.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.611.761.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$180.06$375.60$400.80
Upside / Downside469.46%1,087.87%1,167.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)275.85293.78312.88333.22354.87377.94389.28
Payout Ratio57.55%64.04%70.53%77.02%83.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)158.75188.13220.67256.64296.35340.15360.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)175.08176.74178.40
Year 2 PV (M)191.12194.76198.43
Year 3 PV (M)206.85212.79218.84
Year 4 PV (M)222.29230.84239.64
Year 5 PV (M)237.44248.91260.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,297.217,649.678,015.62
Equity Value (M)8,330.008,713.729,111.75
Shares Outstanding (M)136.88136.88136.88
Fair Value$60.86$63.66$66.57
Upside / Downside92.46%101.33%110.53%

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