Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Guangxi LiuYao Group Co., Ltd (603368.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$167.96 - $393.14$368.43
Multi-Stage$58.69 - $64.21$61.40
Blended Fair Value$214.92
Current Price$18.70
Upside1,049.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.48%15.93%1.040.890.870.870.790.690.580.250.240.18
YoY Growth--16.56%2.05%0.31%9.89%14.57%19.24%131.02%2.76%34.93%-23.55%
Dividend Yield--5.94%4.28%3.54%4.92%3.50%3.08%2.51%0.97%0.83%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)784.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)422.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)362.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)156.9498.0858.85
Cash Retained (M)362.28362.28362.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-156.94-98.08-58.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)205.35264.20303.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)396.94396.94396.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.670.76
LTM Dividend per Share1.061.061.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.670.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.581.731.83
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$167.96$368.43$393.14
Upside / Downside798.20%1,870.23%2,002.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)784.68835.68890.00947.851,009.461,075.081,107.33
Payout Ratio53.83%61.06%68.30%75.53%82.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)422.40510.30607.85715.93835.49967.571,024.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)474.69479.19483.69
Year 2 PV (M)525.97535.99546.10
Year 3 PV (M)576.25592.80609.65
Year 4 PV (M)625.55649.61674.35
Year 5 PV (M)673.88706.43740.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,421.0821,407.4222,431.52
Equity Value (M)23,297.4224,371.4325,485.53
Shares Outstanding (M)396.94396.94396.94
Fair Value$58.69$61.40$64.21
Upside / Downside213.87%228.34%243.35%

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