Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nanjing Well Pharmaceutical Group Co.,Ltd. (603351.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.01 - $216.62$203.00
Multi-Stage$31.75 - $34.74$33.22
Blended Fair Value$118.11
Current Price$27.17
Upside334.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.32%15.21%0.410.390.400.330.350.330.220.160.380.10
YoY Growth--3.84%-0.87%19.08%-3.89%4.90%49.61%40.08%-58.92%270.90%4.43%
Dividend Yield--1.58%1.77%1.56%1.23%1.55%1.51%0.74%0.61%1.48%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)147.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)82.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.5218.4511.07
Cash Retained (M)82.9282.9282.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.52-18.45-11.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.4064.4771.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)135.50135.50135.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.480.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.480.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$89.01$203.00$216.62
Upside / Downside227.60%647.16%697.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)147.59157.18167.40178.28189.87202.21208.28
Payout Ratio43.82%53.06%62.29%71.53%80.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.6783.40104.28127.52153.35181.99192.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)77.5578.2879.02
Year 2 PV (M)90.1691.8893.61
Year 3 PV (M)102.53105.47108.47
Year 4 PV (M)114.64119.05123.59
Year 5 PV (M)126.52132.63138.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,791.073,974.184,164.29
Equity Value (M)4,302.464,501.494,707.95
Shares Outstanding (M)135.50135.50135.50
Fair Value$31.75$33.22$34.74
Upside / Downside16.87%22.27%27.88%

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