Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Square Technology Group Co.,Ltd (603339.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.49 - $101.60$95.22
Multi-Stage$14.88 - $16.29$15.57
Blended Fair Value$55.39
Current Price$14.00
Upside295.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.49%23.92%0.260.230.160.130.140.160.120.120.000.11
YoY Growth--14.84%41.53%27.29%-11.06%-10.53%27.14%0.27%0.00%-100.00%251.94%
Dividend Yield--2.13%1.98%1.07%1.15%1.47%1.99%1.00%0.85%0.00%1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)71.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)84.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.2219.5111.71
Cash Retained (M)84.5284.5284.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.22-19.51-11.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.3065.0172.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)305.52305.52305.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.210.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41.49$95.22$101.60
Upside / Downside196.32%580.12%625.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.09166.23177.04188.55200.80213.85220.27
Payout Ratio45.85%54.68%63.51%72.34%81.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)71.5790.90112.44136.39162.99192.47203.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)84.5285.3286.12
Year 2 PV (M)97.2199.06100.93
Year 3 PV (M)109.64112.79116.00
Year 4 PV (M)121.82126.51131.33
Year 5 PV (M)133.76140.22146.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,000.654,193.884,394.51
Equity Value (M)4,547.594,757.774,975.81
Shares Outstanding (M)305.52305.52305.52
Fair Value$14.88$15.57$16.29
Upside / Downside6.32%11.23%16.33%

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