Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. (603267.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.54 - $44.23$29.32
Multi-Stage$15.51 - $16.95$16.22
Blended Fair Value$22.77
Current Price$58.66
Upside-61.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.55%17.54%0.390.440.460.410.020.400.050.160.330.42
YoY Growth---11.86%-4.21%12.12%1,671.58%-94.20%685.87%-67.98%-52.41%-21.23%448.81%
Dividend Yield--0.75%1.25%0.59%0.32%0.02%1.19%0.24%0.76%1.59%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)248.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)42.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)205.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.7531.0918.65
Cash Retained (M)205.88205.88205.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.75-31.09-18.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)156.13174.79187.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)230.73230.73230.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.760.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.760.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.860.941.00
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate5.19%6.19%7.19%
Fair Value$20.54$29.32$44.23
Upside / Downside-64.98%-50.02%-24.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)248.73264.12280.45297.80316.22335.78345.86
Payout Ratio17.23%31.78%46.34%60.89%75.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)42.8583.94129.95181.33238.58302.20319.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.60%9.60%9.60%
Growth Rate5.19%6.19%7.19%
Year 1 PV (M)75.8776.5977.31
Year 2 PV (M)106.15108.18110.23
Year 3 PV (M)133.87137.73141.66
Year 4 PV (M)159.19165.33171.65
Year 5 PV (M)182.25191.08200.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,922.213,063.783,210.79
Equity Value (M)3,579.543,742.683,911.87
Shares Outstanding (M)230.73230.73230.73
Fair Value$15.51$16.22$16.95
Upside / Downside-73.55%-72.35%-71.10%

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