Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Shengda Bio-Pharm Co., Ltd. (603079.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.62 - $24.06$13.39
Multi-Stage$5.72 - $6.25$5.98
Blended Fair Value$9.68
Current Price$16.89
Upside-42.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.10%12.43%0.100.080.160.380.110.080.150.380.020.04
YoY Growth--27.37%-48.28%-58.10%248.03%39.96%-49.19%-59.29%1,570.23%-36.19%8.90%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.67%1.23%2.58%0.51%0.28%0.95%1.70%0.20%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.227.644.58
Cash Retained (M)55.5355.5355.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.22-7.64-4.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.3147.8950.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)172.80172.80172.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.62$13.39$24.06
Upside / Downside-48.96%-20.74%42.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61.0865.0569.2873.7978.5883.6986.20
Payout Ratio9.10%25.28%41.46%57.64%73.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.5616.4528.7242.5358.0175.3279.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14.9515.0915.24
Year 2 PV (M)23.7424.1924.65
Year 3 PV (M)31.9632.8833.81
Year 4 PV (M)39.6341.1542.72
Year 5 PV (M)46.7849.0451.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)830.85870.98912.65
Equity Value (M)987.921,033.341,080.46
Shares Outstanding (M)172.80172.80172.80
Fair Value$5.72$5.98$6.25
Upside / Downside-66.15%-64.59%-62.98%

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