Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Weaver Network Technology Co., Ltd. (603039.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.70 - $33.31$22.29
Multi-Stage$11.46 - $12.52$11.98
Blended Fair Value$17.13
Current Price$57.25
Upside-70.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.46%0.00%0.220.150.150.130.090.060.040.040.000.00
YoY Growth--50.99%-0.21%18.29%43.23%48.04%47.87%3.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.33%0.37%0.20%0.24%0.12%0.13%0.09%0.13%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)216.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)178.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.3527.0916.25
Cash Retained (M)178.02178.02178.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.35-27.09-16.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)134.67150.93161.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)259.08259.08259.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.580.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.580.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.77
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.70$22.29$33.31
Upside / Downside-72.58%-61.07%-41.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)216.73230.82245.82261.80278.81296.94305.85
Payout Ratio17.86%32.29%46.72%61.14%75.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.7174.53114.84160.07210.71267.24282.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)67.1267.7568.39
Year 2 PV (M)93.1494.9196.70
Year 3 PV (M)116.92120.27123.69
Year 4 PV (M)138.60143.93149.41
Year 5 PV (M)158.31165.96173.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,395.062,510.752,630.86
Equity Value (M)2,969.153,103.573,242.95
Shares Outstanding (M)259.08259.08259.08
Fair Value$11.46$11.98$12.52
Upside / Downside-79.98%-79.08%-78.14%

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