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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. (601825.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.71 - $255.17$224.99
Multi-Stage$32.11 - $35.14$33.60
Blended Fair Value$129.29
Current Price$8.18
Upside1,480.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.77%23.02%0.840.610.540.500.390.280.290.320.150.15
YoY Growth--38.95%12.02%7.39%29.61%39.57%-2.98%-11.09%112.60%1.18%41.44%
Dividend Yield--10.11%8.75%9.40%7.83%3.64%2.61%2.69%3.02%1.42%1.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,370.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,010.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,360.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,474.071,546.29927.78
Cash Retained (M)9,360.099,360.099,360.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,474.07-1,546.29-927.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,886.027,813.808,432.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,641.139,641.139,641.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.810.87
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.810.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.031.121.19
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.71$224.99$255.17
Upside / Downside764.45%2,650.44%3,019.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,370.3513,174.4214,030.7514,942.7515,914.0316,948.4417,456.90
Payout Ratio24.33%37.47%50.60%63.73%76.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,010.264,936.137,099.669,523.5812,232.6215,253.6016,147.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,568.554,611.854,655.16
Year 2 PV (M)6,081.636,197.476,314.40
Year 3 PV (M)7,550.487,767.237,988.09
Year 4 PV (M)8,976.059,321.259,676.30
Year 5 PV (M)10,359.2810,859.6411,379.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)272,023.02285,161.83298,803.50
Equity Value (M)309,559.02323,919.27338,816.59
Shares Outstanding (M)9,641.139,641.139,641.13
Fair Value$32.11$33.60$35.14
Upside / Downside292.52%310.73%329.62%

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