Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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BOC International (China) Co. Ltd. (601696.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.03 - $2.79$2.41
Multi-Stage$5.83 - $6.45$6.13
Blended Fair Value$4.27
Current Price$14.36
Upside-70.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.64%-7.19%0.130.090.140.220.180.250.280.270.490.13
YoY Growth--41.69%-33.87%-35.84%25.13%-28.40%-10.91%2.16%-44.78%286.88%-54.72%
Dividend Yield--1.27%0.92%1.32%1.65%1.00%1.16%3.52%3.45%6.24%1.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,099.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)210.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)888.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)219.97137.4882.49
Cash Retained (M)888.88888.88888.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-219.97-137.48-82.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)668.91751.40806.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,787.082,787.082,787.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-7.74%-6.74%-5.74%
Fair Value$2.03$2.41$2.79
Upside / Downside-85.85%-83.19%-80.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,099.871,025.77956.66892.20832.09776.03799.31
Payout Ratio19.18%33.35%47.51%61.67%75.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)210.99342.06454.51550.25631.03698.43739.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-7.74%-6.74%-5.74%
Year 1 PV (M)317.44320.88324.32
Year 2 PV (M)391.44399.97408.59
Year 3 PV (M)439.79454.24469.01
Year 4 PV (M)468.05488.68509.98
Year 5 PV (M)480.76507.38535.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,137.4214,920.3615,737.61
Equity Value (M)16,234.8917,091.5117,984.68
Shares Outstanding (M)2,787.082,787.082,787.08
Fair Value$5.83$6.13$6.45
Upside / Downside-59.44%-57.30%-55.06%

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