Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shaanxi Beiyuan Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. (601568.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.32 - $0.45$0.38
Multi-Stage$0.46 - $0.51$0.48
Blended Fair Value$0.43
Current Price$3.91
Upside-88.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-11.11%0.00%0.090.530.300.210.120.170.140.080.070.00
YoY Growth---82.01%77.04%39.17%73.56%-27.87%18.49%84.04%6.44%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.37%11.67%5.20%3.23%1.48%1.33%1.12%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)201.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.9625.6015.36
Cash Retained (M)201.91201.91201.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.96-25.60-15.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)160.95176.31186.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,217.654,217.654,217.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.32$0.38$0.45
Upside / Downside-91.87%-90.19%-88.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204.79202.74200.72198.71196.72194.75200.60
Payout Ratio1.41%19.13%36.85%54.56%72.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.8938.7873.95108.42142.19175.28185.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)34.9135.2635.62
Year 2 PV (M)59.9261.1562.40
Year 3 PV (M)79.0881.5384.02
Year 4 PV (M)93.3697.23101.22
Year 5 PV (M)103.59108.99114.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,573.501,655.441,740.75
Equity Value (M)1,944.372,039.602,138.61
Shares Outstanding (M)4,217.654,217.654,217.65
Fair Value$0.46$0.48$0.51
Upside / Downside-88.21%-87.63%-87.03%

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