Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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First Tractor Company Limited (601038.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.28 - $144.30$135.23
Multi-Stage$19.56 - $21.37$20.45
Blended Fair Value$77.84
Current Price$12.67
Upside514.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.83%7.65%0.320.240.120.090.060.120.170.180.140.16
YoY Growth--34.21%102.03%25.05%48.68%-48.92%-27.34%-2.81%24.29%-9.90%2.63%
Dividend Yield--2.32%1.42%1.08%0.79%0.56%1.91%3.17%2.55%1.26%1.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)815.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)582.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)232.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)163.06101.9161.15
Cash Retained (M)232.42232.42232.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-163.06-101.91-61.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)69.36130.51171.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,123.651,123.651,123.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44.28$135.23$144.30
Upside / Downside249.51%967.33%1,038.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)815.31868.30924.74984.851,048.871,117.041,150.55
Payout Ratio71.49%75.19%78.90%82.60%86.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)582.89652.91729.58813.46905.161,005.341,064.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)605.13610.87616.60
Year 2 PV (M)626.71638.64650.69
Year 3 PV (M)647.62666.21685.15
Year 4 PV (M)667.89693.57719.99
Year 5 PV (M)687.52720.73755.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,744.1119,649.4520,589.45
Equity Value (M)21,978.9722,979.4724,017.09
Shares Outstanding (M)1,123.651,123.651,123.65
Fair Value$19.56$20.45$21.37
Upside / Downside54.38%61.41%68.70%

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