Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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TangShan Port Group Co.,Ltd (601000.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.23 - $5.22$4.13
Multi-Stage$6.69 - $7.35$7.01
Blended Fair Value$5.57
Current Price$3.81
Upside46.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.22%14.26%0.200.200.210.350.100.080.070.090.080.07
YoY Growth---0.04%-3.28%-41.50%253.97%20.33%12.21%-17.80%19.31%11.46%28.36%
Dividend Yield--4.27%4.78%6.67%11.87%3.63%3.67%2.22%2.40%2.23%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,785.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,185.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)600.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)357.10223.19133.91
Cash Retained (M)600.33600.33600.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-357.10-223.19-133.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)243.22377.14466.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,925.045,925.045,925.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-0.89%0.11%1.11%
Fair Value$3.23$4.13$5.22
Upside / Downside-15.24%8.28%37.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,785.511,787.461,789.401,791.351,793.301,795.251,849.11
Payout Ratio66.38%71.10%75.83%80.55%85.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,185.191,270.921,356.851,442.951,529.251,615.731,710.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-0.89%0.11%1.11%
Year 1 PV (M)1,181.351,193.271,205.19
Year 2 PV (M)1,172.331,196.111,220.13
Year 3 PV (M)1,158.871,194.301,230.45
Year 4 PV (M)1,141.621,188.391,236.59
Year 5 PV (M)1,121.171,178.881,238.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,839.9135,581.9237,394.95
Equity Value (M)39,615.2541,532.8943,526.26
Shares Outstanding (M)5,925.045,925.045,925.04
Fair Value$6.69$7.01$7.35
Upside / Downside75.49%83.98%92.81%

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