Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co., Ltd. (600989.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$145.50 - $292.94$274.53
Multi-Stage$45.20 - $49.47$47.29
Blended Fair Value$160.91
Current Price$17.80
Upside803.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.32%18.28%0.440.210.420.320.320.340.260.350.070.00
YoY Growth--107.58%-49.72%31.80%-0.14%-5.66%28.73%-24.74%381.13%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.02%1.26%2.85%2.15%2.04%4.03%1.64%2.19%0.45%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,750.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,269.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,480.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,150.151,343.85806.31
Cash Retained (M)6,480.926,480.926,480.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,150.15-1,343.85-806.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,330.765,137.075,674.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,298.687,298.687,298.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.700.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.700.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.291.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$145.50$274.53$292.94
Upside / Downside717.41%1,442.28%1,545.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,750.7711,449.5712,193.8012,986.3913,830.5114,729.4915,171.38
Payout Ratio39.72%49.77%59.83%69.89%79.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,269.855,698.847,295.559,075.7611,056.5713,256.5414,033.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,308.035,358.355,408.66
Year 2 PV (M)6,329.266,449.816,571.50
Year 3 PV (M)7,333.737,544.257,758.77
Year 4 PV (M)8,321.658,641.688,970.85
Year 5 PV (M)9,293.239,742.0910,208.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)293,280.71307,446.28322,154.00
Equity Value (M)329,866.60345,182.46361,071.91
Shares Outstanding (M)7,298.687,298.687,298.68
Fair Value$45.20$47.29$49.47
Upside / Downside153.91%165.70%177.93%

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