Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.,Ltd. (600976.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$174.89 - $425.60$398.85
Multi-Stage$62.35 - $68.23$65.24
Blended Fair Value$232.04
Current Price$40.36
Upside474.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS43.12%11.73%1.231.020.810.380.200.210.200.130.220.41
YoY Growth--20.18%25.96%111.59%88.23%-0.41%0.32%57.84%-42.00%-45.10%0.18%
Dividend Yield--2.73%1.72%1.06%0.63%0.77%1.32%1.14%0.55%0.72%1.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)326.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)185.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.2640.7924.47
Cash Retained (M)185.70185.70185.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.26-40.79-24.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)120.44144.91161.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)152.48152.48152.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.790.951.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.920.920.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.790.951.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.711.871.98
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$174.89$398.85$425.60
Upside / Downside333.32%888.22%954.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)326.30347.51370.10394.15419.77447.06460.47
Payout Ratio43.09%52.47%61.85%71.24%80.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140.60182.34228.92280.78338.41402.35425.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)169.55171.16172.77
Year 2 PV (M)197.93201.70205.51
Year 3 PV (M)225.75232.23238.83
Year 4 PV (M)253.00262.73272.74
Year 5 PV (M)279.71293.22307.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,381.618,786.459,206.78
Equity Value (M)9,507.569,947.4910,403.87
Shares Outstanding (M)152.48152.48152.48
Fair Value$62.35$65.24$68.23
Upside / Downside54.50%61.65%69.06%

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