Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fortune Ng Fung Food (Hebei) Co.,Ltd (600965.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.42 - $0.56$0.49
Multi-Stage$1.01 - $1.12$1.07
Blended Fair Value$0.78
Current Price$4.81
Upside-83.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-20.61%0.29%0.050.050.130.110.160.160.080.090.080.05
YoY Growth---6.59%-56.73%15.17%-33.16%1.38%95.58%-11.78%10.40%56.33%9.63%
Dividend Yield--0.81%1.03%1.74%1.56%2.93%1.87%0.74%0.90%0.64%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.319.575.74
Cash Retained (M)43.5243.5243.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.31-9.57-5.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.2133.9537.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)808.91808.91808.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate7.82%7.82%7.82%
Growth Rate-8.72%-7.72%-6.72%
Fair Value$0.42$0.49$0.56
Upside / Downside-91.32%-89.78%-88.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76.5570.6465.1860.1455.5051.2152.75
Payout Ratio43.15%52.52%61.89%71.26%80.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.0337.1040.3442.8644.7546.0948.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.82%7.82%7.82%
Growth Rate-8.72%-7.72%-6.72%
Year 1 PV (M)34.0434.4134.78
Year 2 PV (M)33.9534.7035.46
Year 3 PV (M)33.1034.2035.32
Year 4 PV (M)31.7033.1134.57
Year 5 PV (M)29.9631.6333.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)658.12694.97733.46
Equity Value (M)820.87863.03906.97
Shares Outstanding (M)808.91808.91808.91
Fair Value$1.01$1.07$1.12
Upside / Downside-78.90%-77.82%-76.69%

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