Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Caida Securities Co., Ltd. (600906.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.26 - $10.46$7.30
Multi-Stage$6.75 - $7.41$7.07
Blended Fair Value$7.19
Current Price$7.23
Upside-0.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.45%18.80%0.200.150.220.210.220.250.190.080.320.15
YoY Growth--33.38%-31.69%3.16%-4.84%-10.96%30.25%151.34%-76.43%120.67%312.72%
Dividend Yield--3.01%2.09%2.77%1.94%4.13%4.63%3.56%1.42%6.00%2.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)980.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)116.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)864.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)196.12122.5873.55
Cash Retained (M)864.17864.17864.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-196.12-122.58-73.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)668.05741.59790.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,098.903,098.903,098.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.280.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate2.09%3.09%4.09%
Fair Value$5.26$7.30$10.46
Upside / Downside-27.23%0.92%44.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)980.611,010.881,042.081,074.251,107.421,141.601,175.85
Payout Ratio11.87%27.50%43.12%58.75%74.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)116.44277.98449.39631.12823.641,027.441,087.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.00%7.00%7.00%
Growth Rate2.09%3.09%4.09%
Year 1 PV (M)257.28259.80262.32
Year 2 PV (M)384.95392.53400.18
Year 3 PV (M)500.35515.20530.34
Year 4 PV (M)604.35628.38653.12
Year 5 PV (M)697.74732.59768.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,471.3619,393.9520,353.04
Equity Value (M)20,916.0421,922.4522,967.81
Shares Outstanding (M)3,098.903,098.903,098.90
Fair Value$6.75$7.07$7.41
Upside / Downside-6.65%-2.15%2.51%

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