Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Pci Technology Group Co.,Ltd. (600728.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.34 - $4.96$3.32
Multi-Stage$1.67 - $1.83$1.75
Blended Fair Value$2.54
Current Price$7.36
Upside-65.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.74%32.80%0.020.000.030.020.030.040.030.000.000.00
YoY Growth--396.06%-85.54%49.30%-45.28%-23.14%75.08%14,306.82%-79.05%-48.40%38.86%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.08%0.38%0.25%0.54%0.50%0.20%0.00%0.01%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)267.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)263.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.4233.3820.03
Cash Retained (M)263.86263.86263.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.42-33.38-20.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)210.45230.48243.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,134.782,134.782,134.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.34$3.32$4.96
Upside / Downside-68.17%-54.83%-32.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)267.08284.44302.92322.61343.58365.92376.89
Payout Ratio1.20%18.96%36.72%54.48%72.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.2153.94111.24175.76248.21329.33348.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)48.5749.0349.49
Year 2 PV (M)90.2091.9293.66
Year 3 PV (M)128.34132.03135.78
Year 4 PV (M)163.21169.48175.94
Year 5 PV (M)195.00204.42214.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,946.003,088.293,236.03
Equity Value (M)3,571.323,735.173,905.10
Shares Outstanding (M)2,134.782,134.782,134.78
Fair Value$1.67$1.75$1.83
Upside / Downside-77.27%-76.23%-75.15%

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