Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sumec Corporation Limited (600710.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.87 - $188.59$176.73
Multi-Stage$25.11 - $27.46$26.26
Blended Fair Value$101.50
Current Price$10.50
Upside866.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.20%38.39%0.460.560.260.630.430.510.510.490.270.26
YoY Growth---17.72%112.45%-58.06%45.90%-16.37%1.13%2.67%82.05%5.25%1,348.03%
Dividend Yield--4.48%6.89%4.07%10.64%7.43%10.43%9.36%7.87%2.90%2.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,250.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)584.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)666.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)250.19156.3793.82
Cash Retained (M)666.45666.45666.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-250.19-156.37-93.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)416.26510.08572.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,319.201,319.201,319.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$57.87$176.73$188.59
Upside / Downside451.17%1,583.17%1,696.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,250.951,332.261,418.851,511.081,609.301,713.901,765.32
Payout Ratio46.72%55.38%64.03%72.69%81.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)584.50737.80908.561,098.401,309.081,542.511,632.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)683.80690.28696.77
Year 2 PV (M)780.44795.31810.31
Year 3 PV (M)874.47899.57925.15
Year 4 PV (M)965.931,003.081,041.28
Year 5 PV (M)1,054.881,105.831,158.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,759.4630,148.5531,590.81
Equity Value (M)33,118.9834,642.6236,223.05
Shares Outstanding (M)1,319.201,319.201,319.20
Fair Value$25.11$26.26$27.46
Upside / Downside139.10%150.10%161.51%

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