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Definitive Analysis

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Bestsun Energy Co., Ltd. (600681.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.65 - $4.26$3.38
Multi-Stage$5.92 - $6.50$6.21
Blended Fair Value$4.79
Current Price$3.81
Upside25.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.45%9.23%0.280.360.460.570.490.430.360.010.000.18
YoY Growth---22.90%-21.61%-20.13%17.85%13.05%19.18%2,516.90%217.14%-97.53%53.63%
Dividend Yield--8.30%9.57%10.55%11.13%8.52%8.00%3.78%0.16%0.04%2.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)335.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)320.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.1941.9925.19
Cash Retained (M)15.6615.6615.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.19-41.99-25.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)-51.53-26.34-9.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,340.891,340.891,340.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.04-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-1.16%-0.16%0.84%
Fair Value$2.65$3.38$4.26
Upside / Downside-30.48%-11.35%11.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)335.93335.40334.87334.34333.82333.29343.29
Payout Ratio95.34%94.27%93.20%92.14%91.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)320.27316.19312.11308.05304.00299.96317.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-1.16%-0.16%0.84%
Year 1 PV (M)294.41297.39300.36
Year 2 PV (M)270.60276.10281.66
Year 3 PV (M)248.68256.30264.08
Year 4 PV (M)228.50237.89247.57
Year 5 PV (M)209.94220.77232.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,689.577,034.887,394.31
Equity Value (M)7,941.698,323.338,720.03
Shares Outstanding (M)1,340.891,340.891,340.89
Fair Value$5.92$6.21$6.50
Upside / Downside55.45%62.92%70.69%

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