Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Glarun Technology Co.,Ltd (600562.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.62 - $20.54$13.69
Multi-Stage$6.84 - $7.49$7.16
Blended Fair Value$10.42
Current Price$34.42
Upside-69.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS69.88%16.90%0.150.130.130.110.010.010.040.060.050.04
YoY Growth--10.18%3.43%14.88%847.01%14.11%-74.65%-25.28%17.49%23.49%22.54%
Dividend Yield--0.72%0.94%0.79%0.71%0.08%0.08%0.22%0.32%0.19%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)634.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)631.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.8079.2547.55
Cash Retained (M)631.33631.33631.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.80-79.25-47.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)504.53552.08583.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,245.981,245.981,245.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.440.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.440.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.62$13.69$20.54
Upside / Downside-72.05%-60.23%-40.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)634.00675.21719.09765.84815.61868.63894.69
Payout Ratio0.42%18.34%36.25%54.17%72.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.66123.81260.69414.84587.93781.77827.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)111.53112.59113.65
Year 2 PV (M)211.56215.59219.65
Year 3 PV (M)303.28311.98320.85
Year 4 PV (M)387.20402.10417.41
Year 5 PV (M)463.82486.22509.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,051.047,391.607,745.21
Equity Value (M)8,528.428,920.089,326.25
Shares Outstanding (M)1,245.981,245.981,245.98
Fair Value$6.84$7.16$7.49
Upside / Downside-80.11%-79.20%-78.25%

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