Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Beijing AriTime Intelligent Control Co., Ltd. (600560.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.88 - $2.82$2.33
Multi-Stage$2.35 - $2.58$2.46
Blended Fair Value$2.39
Current Price$16.42
Upside-85.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.61%4.01%0.070.040.060.030.040.030.020.020.010.02
YoY Growth--52.41%-25.90%111.44%-21.80%31.11%80.63%-12.57%28.38%-42.78%-47.85%
Dividend Yield--0.43%0.27%0.51%0.29%0.42%0.30%0.14%0.14%0.09%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.326.453.87
Cash Retained (M)50.9350.9350.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.32-6.45-3.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.6144.4847.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)235.46235.46235.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Fair Value$1.88$2.33$2.82
Upside / Downside-88.55%-85.84%-82.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.6152.4453.2854.1355.0055.8857.55
Payout Ratio1.31%19.05%36.79%54.52%72.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.689.9919.6029.5139.7450.2953.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Year 1 PV (M)8.999.089.17
Year 2 PV (M)15.8916.2016.52
Year 3 PV (M)21.5422.1922.85
Year 4 PV (M)26.1127.1628.25
Year 5 PV (M)29.7531.2532.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)451.09473.96497.75
Equity Value (M)553.36579.85607.37
Shares Outstanding (M)235.46235.46235.46
Fair Value$2.35$2.46$2.58
Upside / Downside-85.69%-85.00%-84.29%

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