Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (600557.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.67 - $7.56$5.97
Multi-Stage$5.15 - $5.64$5.39
Blended Fair Value$5.68
Current Price$14.99
Upside-62.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.33%15.66%0.380.230.000.020.080.150.150.070.110.09
YoY Growth--66.20%5,065.03%-77.49%-76.69%-43.97%-0.49%130.01%-38.35%16.78%2.99%
Dividend Yield--2.70%1.06%0.01%0.14%0.81%1.12%1.09%0.48%0.62%0.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)234.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)231.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.8729.2917.58
Cash Retained (M)231.89231.89231.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.87-29.29-17.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)185.02202.60214.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)560.61560.61560.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.360.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.360.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Fair Value$4.67$5.97$7.56
Upside / Downside-68.88%-60.20%-49.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)234.36242.05249.99258.20266.67275.42283.68
Payout Ratio1.05%18.84%36.63%54.42%72.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.4645.6091.57140.51192.56247.88262.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Year 1 PV (M)41.2041.6042.01
Year 2 PV (M)74.7576.2277.70
Year 3 PV (M)103.62106.69109.82
Year 4 PV (M)128.29133.39138.63
Year 5 PV (M)149.20156.64164.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,388.232,507.282,631.03
Equity Value (M)2,885.293,021.823,163.56
Shares Outstanding (M)560.61560.61560.61
Fair Value$5.15$5.39$5.64
Upside / Downside-65.67%-64.04%-62.35%

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