Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co., Ltd. (600486.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.06 - $50.96$40.66
Multi-Stage$37.65 - $41.30$39.44
Blended Fair Value$40.05
Current Price$71.94
Upside-44.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.15%25.67%0.921.060.600.590.611.660.580.380.350.13
YoY Growth---12.97%75.09%1.81%-3.00%-63.22%185.24%52.93%10.47%170.00%36.36%
Dividend Yield--1.74%1.95%0.81%0.64%0.66%3.21%1.32%1.04%1.23%0.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,231.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,216.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)246.33153.9692.37
Cash Retained (M)1,216.301,216.301,216.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-246.33-153.96-92.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)969.961,062.341,123.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)403.82403.82403.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.402.632.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.402.632.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.442.672.82
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate1.70%2.70%3.70%
Fair Value$32.06$40.66$50.96
Upside / Downside-55.44%-43.48%-29.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,231.661,264.911,299.061,334.141,370.151,407.151,449.36
Payout Ratio1.25%19.00%36.75%54.50%72.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.36240.31477.39727.09989.931,266.431,340.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate1.70%2.70%3.70%
Year 1 PV (M)217.44219.58221.71
Year 2 PV (M)390.85398.57406.37
Year 3 PV (M)538.64554.69571.05
Year 4 PV (M)663.57690.05717.33
Year 5 PV (M)768.13806.64846.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,624.4813,257.4813,915.62
Equity Value (M)15,203.1015,927.0116,678.77
Shares Outstanding (M)403.82403.82403.82
Fair Value$37.65$39.44$41.30
Upside / Downside-47.67%-45.18%-42.59%

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