Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ling Yun Industrial Corporation Limited (600480.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.83 - $138.95$130.21
Multi-Stage$20.52 - $22.44$21.46
Blended Fair Value$75.84
Current Price$13.92
Upside444.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.11%11.02%0.380.200.150.220.120.230.210.180.140.19
YoY Growth--88.84%31.76%-31.54%86.36%-49.02%13.45%14.43%33.55%-28.08%41.00%
Dividend Yield--2.98%2.58%2.55%3.36%1.87%5.01%3.00%2.11%1.33%2.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)742.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)421.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)321.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)148.5892.8655.72
Cash Retained (M)321.34321.34321.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-148.58-92.86-55.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)172.76228.47265.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,063.331,063.331,063.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.83$130.21$138.95
Upside / Downside308.26%835.44%898.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)742.91791.20842.63897.40955.731,017.851,048.38
Payout Ratio56.75%63.40%70.05%76.70%83.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)421.57501.59590.24688.29796.59916.06969.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)466.39470.81475.24
Year 2 PV (M)510.30520.02529.83
Year 3 PV (M)553.31569.20585.38
Year 4 PV (M)595.44618.33641.89
Year 5 PV (M)636.69667.44699.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,052.5119,972.7520,928.22
Equity Value (M)21,814.6422,818.5623,859.92
Shares Outstanding (M)1,063.331,063.331,063.33
Fair Value$20.52$21.46$22.44
Upside / Downside47.38%54.16%61.20%

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