Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Xiangtan Electric Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (600416.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.01 - $1.37$1.19
Multi-Stage$2.07 - $2.29$2.18
Blended Fair Value$1.69
Current Price$16.24
Upside-89.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.52%-18.35%0.040.040.110.120.190.240.020.220.290.29
YoY Growth---3.73%-59.12%-9.32%-39.23%-19.78%1,043.03%-90.61%-22.11%-1.94%-7.65%
Dividend Yield--0.38%0.32%0.51%0.83%0.97%2.90%0.27%2.00%1.68%2.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)281.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)243.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.3535.2221.13
Cash Retained (M)243.74243.74243.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.35-35.22-21.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)187.40208.53222.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,359.681,359.681,359.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate-6.88%-5.88%-4.88%
Fair Value$1.01$1.19$1.37
Upside / Downside-93.78%-92.65%-91.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)281.73265.18249.60234.93221.13208.14214.38
Payout Ratio13.48%28.79%44.09%59.39%74.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.9876.33110.05139.53165.18187.32198.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate-6.88%-5.88%-4.88%
Year 1 PV (M)69.6670.4171.16
Year 2 PV (M)91.6593.6395.63
Year 3 PV (M)106.05109.50113.03
Year 4 PV (M)114.57119.57124.73
Year 5 PV (M)118.57125.08131.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,318.592,445.792,578.50
Equity Value (M)2,819.092,963.973,114.91
Shares Outstanding (M)1,359.681,359.681,359.68
Fair Value$2.07$2.18$2.29
Upside / Downside-87.23%-86.58%-85.89%

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