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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co., Ltd. (600415.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.99 - $152.90$143.29
Multi-Stage$23.80 - $26.04$24.90
Blended Fair Value$84.10
Current Price$18.55
Upside353.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.69%7.66%0.260.110.120.120.100.140.130.100.090.16
YoY Growth--135.70%-8.76%0.19%21.12%-30.37%4.94%28.86%12.72%-41.33%28.75%
Dividend Yield--1.68%1.24%2.06%2.37%1.96%4.27%2.76%1.95%1.17%2.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,202.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,255.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,947.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)840.42525.26315.16
Cash Retained (M)1,947.101,947.101,947.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-840.42-525.26-315.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,106.671,421.831,631.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,465.755,465.755,465.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.260.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.260.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.670.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$75.99$143.29$152.90
Upside / Downside309.63%672.44%724.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,202.124,475.264,766.155,075.955,405.885,757.275,929.99
Payout Ratio53.66%60.93%68.20%75.47%82.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,255.022,726.823,250.433,830.594,472.445,181.545,485.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,539.842,563.912,587.99
Year 2 PV (M)2,819.942,873.652,927.87
Year 3 PV (M)3,095.383,184.243,274.78
Year 4 PV (M)3,366.213,495.673,628.82
Year 5 PV (M)3,632.503,807.953,990.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)114,653.00120,190.78125,940.51
Equity Value (M)130,106.86136,116.19142,350.07
Shares Outstanding (M)5,465.755,465.755,465.75
Fair Value$23.80$24.90$26.04
Upside / Downside28.32%34.25%40.40%

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