Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Antong Holdings Co., Ltd. (600179.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.56 - $4.13$3.27
Multi-Stage$2.81 - $3.08$2.94
Blended Fair Value$3.10
Current Price$3.59
Upside-13.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-50.70%-19.38%0.000.000.000.000.010.020.050.010.010.01
YoY Growth--3,019.82%-96.23%0.00%-100.00%-45.47%-50.68%311.48%33.24%53.73%-4.13%
Dividend Yield--0.02%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.29%0.51%0.61%0.10%0.07%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,113.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,109.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)222.62139.1483.48
Cash Retained (M)1,109.151,109.151,109.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-222.62-139.14-83.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)886.53970.021,025.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,754.664,754.664,754.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Fair Value$2.56$3.27$4.13
Upside / Downside-28.58%-8.93%14.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,113.091,149.851,187.811,227.031,267.551,309.401,348.69
Payout Ratio0.35%18.28%36.21%54.14%72.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.94210.23430.14664.34913.531,178.461,247.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Year 1 PV (M)189.66191.51193.36
Year 2 PV (M)350.07356.95363.89
Year 3 PV (M)487.76502.21516.93
Year 4 PV (M)605.09629.10653.81
Year 5 PV (M)704.18739.28775.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,003.7811,552.2112,122.29
Equity Value (M)13,340.5413,971.2514,626.05
Shares Outstanding (M)4,754.664,754.664,754.66
Fair Value$2.81$2.94$3.08
Upside / Downside-21.84%-18.15%-14.31%

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