Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Luenmei Quantum Co.,Ltd (600167.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.23 - $5.16$4.10
Multi-Stage$7.23 - $7.95$7.58
Blended Fair Value$5.84
Current Price$9.05
Upside-35.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.72%33.59%0.340.210.130.410.220.360.170.080.000.27
YoY Growth--60.76%61.54%-67.57%88.77%-39.33%111.88%106.75%2,015.84%-98.57%1,314.35%
Dividend Yield--6.05%3.71%2.13%5.70%2.06%2.55%1.55%0.82%0.05%4.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)693.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)452.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)241.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)138.8086.7552.05
Cash Retained (M)241.07241.07241.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-138.80-86.75-52.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.27154.32189.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,226.912,226.912,226.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-1.34%-0.34%0.66%
Fair Value$3.23$4.10$5.16
Upside / Downside-64.36%-54.68%-43.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)693.99691.62689.25686.90684.55682.21702.67
Payout Ratio65.26%70.21%75.16%80.11%85.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)452.92485.59518.03550.24582.23613.99649.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate-1.34%-0.34%0.66%
Year 1 PV (M)452.29456.88461.46
Year 2 PV (M)449.43458.58467.83
Year 3 PV (M)444.64458.30472.24
Year 4 PV (M)438.23456.27474.86
Year 5 PV (M)430.46452.72475.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,877.2914,594.9915,342.09
Equity Value (M)16,092.3416,877.7417,694.37
Shares Outstanding (M)2,226.912,226.912,226.91
Fair Value$7.23$7.58$7.95
Upside / Downside-20.15%-16.25%-12.20%

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