Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Orient Financial Holdings Group Co., Ltd. (600120.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.33 - $5.00$4.12
Multi-Stage$6.80 - $7.49$7.14
Blended Fair Value$5.63
Current Price$6.28
Upside-10.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.17%-0.21%0.110.140.110.070.060.060.050.050.040.08
YoY Growth---26.32%27.70%72.32%5.03%9.01%19.65%5.05%20.88%-55.02%-22.83%
Dividend Yield--1.65%3.72%2.83%1.54%1.45%1.46%1.04%1.09%0.70%1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,317.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)425.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)892.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)263.58164.7498.84
Cash Retained (M)892.45892.45892.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-263.58-164.74-98.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)628.87727.71793.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,316.553,316.553,316.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-2.21%-1.21%-0.21%
Fair Value$3.33$4.12$5.00
Upside / Downside-46.99%-34.40%-20.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,317.921,301.961,286.201,270.631,255.241,240.051,277.25
Payout Ratio32.28%43.83%55.37%66.91%78.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)425.46570.60712.17850.22984.821,116.041,181.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-2.21%-1.21%-0.21%
Year 1 PV (M)527.25532.64538.03
Year 2 PV (M)608.06620.56633.18
Year 3 PV (M)670.77691.56712.78
Year 4 PV (M)717.93747.75778.49
Year 5 PV (M)751.78791.01831.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,282.6920,288.9921,336.87
Equity Value (M)22,558.4723,672.5124,831.22
Shares Outstanding (M)3,316.553,316.553,316.55
Fair Value$6.80$7.14$7.49
Upside / Downside8.31%13.66%19.22%

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