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Definitive Analysis

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CITIC Securities Company Limited (600030.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$114.90 - $371.80$348.43
Multi-Stage$49.14 - $53.77$51.41
Blended Fair Value$199.92
Current Price$29.90
Upside568.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.14%16.04%1.200.921.000.830.910.680.770.560.710.51
YoY Growth--30.13%-8.34%20.53%-8.90%35.40%-12.24%38.44%-21.83%38.50%89.85%
Dividend Yield--4.51%4.74%4.90%3.98%4.06%3.23%3.23%3.17%4.68%3.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28,063.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,381.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)18,681.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,612.753,507.972,104.78
Cash Retained (M)18,681.9618,681.9618,681.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,612.75-3,507.97-2,104.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,069.2115,173.9916,577.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,011.3215,011.3215,011.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.871.011.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.871.011.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.501.641.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$114.90$348.43$371.80
Upside / Downside284.27%1,065.31%1,143.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28,063.7529,887.8931,830.6033,899.5936,103.0738,449.7739,603.26
Payout Ratio33.43%44.74%56.06%67.37%78.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,381.7913,373.1017,843.6522,838.8728,408.0834,604.7936,633.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12,395.5512,513.0512,630.54
Year 2 PV (M)15,330.3215,622.3215,917.07
Year 3 PV (M)18,187.6118,709.7119,241.71
Year 4 PV (M)20,968.9521,775.3522,604.80
Year 5 PV (M)23,675.8024,819.3526,006.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)647,085.56678,340.03710,790.69
Equity Value (M)737,643.79771,779.81807,191.48
Shares Outstanding (M)15,011.3215,011.3215,011.32
Fair Value$49.14$51.41$53.77
Upside / Downside64.35%71.95%79.84%

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