Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Chien Kuo Construction Co., Ltd. (5515.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.12 - $31.94$26.21
Multi-Stage$50.90 - $56.06$53.43
Blended Fair Value$39.82
Current Price$27.15
Upside46.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.56%-3.37%1.261.261.291.030.670.830.830.830.840.89
YoY Growth--0.00%-2.11%25.00%54.02%-20.00%0.00%0.00%-1.07%-4.85%-50.00%
Dividend Yield--4.04%4.80%8.03%5.81%3.90%7.91%4.94%4.77%5.82%6.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)494.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)252.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)242.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.8261.7637.06
Cash Retained (M)242.11242.11242.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.82-61.76-37.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)143.28180.34205.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)200.32200.32200.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.720.901.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.720.901.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.972.162.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.68%-1.68%-0.68%
Fair Value$21.12$26.21$31.94
Upside / Downside-22.23%-3.44%17.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)494.11485.83477.69469.69461.82454.08467.71
Payout Ratio51.00%58.80%66.60%74.40%82.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)252.00285.67318.15349.45379.62408.68432.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.68%-1.68%-0.68%
Year 1 PV (M)265.71268.44271.17
Year 2 PV (M)275.23280.92286.66
Year 3 PV (M)281.19289.95298.88
Year 4 PV (M)284.12295.98308.20
Year 5 PV (M)284.49299.41314.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,806.679,268.509,749.51
Equity Value (M)10,197.4210,703.2011,229.37
Shares Outstanding (M)200.32200.32200.32
Fair Value$50.90$53.43$56.06
Upside / Downside87.49%96.79%106.47%

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