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Kunyue Development Co., Ltd. (5206.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.50 - $111.08$86.12
Multi-Stage$136.22 - $149.97$142.96
Blended Fair Value$114.54
Current Price$34.82
Upside228.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.29%0.00%1.250.480.461.250.690.640.640.460.460.00
YoY Growth--160.00%4.17%-63.08%82.00%7.14%0.00%40.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.30%1.55%2.85%8.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)925.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)202.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)722.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)185.04115.6569.39
Cash Retained (M)722.50722.50722.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-185.04-115.65-69.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)537.46606.85653.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)162.52162.52162.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.313.734.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.251.251.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.313.734.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.554.985.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Fair Value$66.50$86.12$111.08
Upside / Downside90.99%147.34%219.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)925.20928.79932.39936.01939.64943.29971.59
Payout Ratio21.91%35.53%49.15%62.76%76.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)202.70329.97458.23587.47717.72848.96898.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Year 1 PV (M)307.63310.73313.82
Year 2 PV (M)398.28406.33414.47
Year 3 PV (M)476.04490.55505.36
Year 4 PV (M)542.20564.35587.17
Year 5 PV (M)597.92628.61660.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,815.4820,832.6221,891.10
Equity Value (M)22,137.5423,233.1924,372.47
Shares Outstanding (M)162.52162.52162.52
Fair Value$136.22$142.96$149.97
Upside / Downside291.20%310.56%330.69%

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