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Scientex Berhad (4731.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.26 - $67.89$63.62
Multi-Stage$10.57 - $11.57$11.06
Blended Fair Value$37.34
Current Price$3.26
Upside1,045.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.60%14.78%0.120.110.100.090.080.070.060.040.070.03
YoY Growth--9.44%10.01%11.12%8.03%25.24%2.71%77.80%-45.13%106.97%5.73%
Dividend Yield--3.68%2.46%2.73%2.75%1.81%1.68%2.10%1.27%2.23%1.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)530.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)186.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)344.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.1566.3439.81
Cash Retained (M)344.00344.00344.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.15-66.34-39.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)237.85277.65304.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,554.871,554.871,554.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.26$63.62$67.89
Upside / Downside981.60%1,851.49%1,982.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)530.75565.25601.99641.12682.79727.17748.99
Payout Ratio35.19%46.15%57.11%68.07%79.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)186.75260.86343.81436.44539.66654.46692.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)243.05245.36247.66
Year 2 PV (M)298.48304.17309.90
Year 3 PV (M)353.04363.17373.50
Year 4 PV (M)406.74422.39438.47
Year 5 PV (M)459.60481.80504.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,667.7515,376.2016,111.78
Equity Value (M)16,428.6617,193.0917,986.16
Shares Outstanding (M)1,554.871,554.871,554.87
Fair Value$10.57$11.06$11.57
Upside / Downside224.11%239.19%254.84%

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