Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Kingdom Holding Company (4280.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.17 - $26.49$15.46
Multi-Stage$12.40 - $13.59$12.99
Blended Fair Value$14.22
Current Price$7.70
Upside84.73%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.60%4.69%0.280.280.250.170.170.170.130.170.220.13
YoY Growth---0.01%10.07%43.71%0.01%-0.01%33.33%-25.00%-20.00%66.67%-25.00%
Dividend Yield--3.22%3.75%3.20%1.75%2.17%2.75%1.49%1.88%2.04%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,700.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,037.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)663.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)340.15212.59127.56
Cash Retained (M)663.18663.18663.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-340.15-212.59-127.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)323.03450.59535.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,762.823,762.823,762.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate2.69%3.69%4.69%
Fair Value$10.17$15.46$26.49
Upside / Downside32.04%100.82%244.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,700.741,763.541,828.661,896.181,966.192,038.792,099.96
Payout Ratio61.01%66.81%72.60%78.40%84.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,037.571,178.141,327.681,486.651,655.561,834.911,942.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate2.69%3.69%4.69%
Year 1 PV (M)1,097.171,107.851,118.53
Year 2 PV (M)1,151.451,173.991,196.74
Year 3 PV (M)1,200.711,236.131,272.24
Year 4 PV (M)1,245.231,294.451,345.11
Year 5 PV (M)1,285.281,349.091,415.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,682.3342,702.0744,801.25
Equity Value (M)46,662.1748,863.5851,149.28
Shares Outstanding (M)3,762.823,762.823,762.82
Fair Value$12.40$12.99$13.59
Upside / Downside61.05%68.65%76.54%

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