Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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United Orthopedic Corporation (4129.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$222.52 - $1,125.15$460.11
Multi-Stage$126.68 - $138.30$132.39
Blended Fair Value$296.25
Current Price$123.00
Upside140.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS19.12%0.00%3.942.050.000.910.711.641.031.021.170.00
YoY Growth--92.35%0.00%-100.00%28.38%-57.03%60.26%0.85%-13.28%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.55%2.07%0.00%3.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)553.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)385.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)167.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)110.7169.2041.52
Cash Retained (M)167.71167.71167.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-110.71-69.20-41.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.9998.51126.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)97.8597.8597.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.581.011.29
LTM Dividend per Share3.943.943.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.581.011.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.534.955.23
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$222.52$460.11$1,125.15
Upside / Downside80.91%274.07%814.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)553.57589.55627.88668.69712.15758.44781.19
Payout Ratio69.70%73.76%77.82%81.88%85.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)385.87434.88488.63547.53612.03682.60722.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)400.20403.99407.78
Year 2 PV (M)413.80421.68429.64
Year 3 PV (M)426.70438.95451.44
Year 4 PV (M)438.93455.81473.17
Year 5 PV (M)450.50472.26494.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,265.0910,760.9011,275.68
Equity Value (M)12,395.2212,953.5913,532.56
Shares Outstanding (M)97.8597.8597.85
Fair Value$126.68$132.39$138.30
Upside / Downside2.99%7.63%12.44%

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