Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Thob Al Aseel Company (4012.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.77 - $4.73$3.62
Multi-Stage$5.52 - $6.06$5.79
Blended Fair Value$4.70
Current Price$3.78
Upside24.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.84%-1.81%0.190.160.150.060.170.150.230.150.000.19
YoY Growth--16.92%8.33%166.67%-66.67%12.50%-33.33%50.00%0.00%-100.00%-16.53%
Dividend Yield--4.61%3.43%3.99%1.27%2.87%4.44%10.56%13.64%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)89.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.9711.236.74
Cash Retained (M)9.839.839.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.97-11.23-6.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)-8.13-1.393.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)400.00400.00400.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-0.14%0.86%1.86%
Fair Value$2.77$3.62$4.73
Upside / Downside-26.71%-4.25%25.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)89.8390.6191.3992.1792.9693.7696.57
Payout Ratio89.05%89.24%89.43%89.62%89.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.0080.8681.7382.6083.4984.3889.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-0.14%0.86%1.86%
Year 1 PV (M)75.2976.0476.80
Year 2 PV (M)70.8572.2873.72
Year 3 PV (M)66.6868.7070.77
Year 4 PV (M)62.7565.3067.93
Year 5 PV (M)59.0562.0765.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,874.121,969.862,069.47
Equity Value (M)2,208.742,314.252,423.88
Shares Outstanding (M)400.00400.00400.00
Fair Value$5.52$5.79$6.06
Upside / Downside46.08%53.06%60.31%

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