Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Beststudy Education Group (3978.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.98 - $7.65$6.22
Multi-Stage$10.81 - $11.91$11.35
Blended Fair Value$8.79
Current Price$4.80
Upside83.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.030.000.000.040.070.000.130.290.000.04
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-35.90%0.00%-100.00%-54.55%38,294.42%-98.14%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.92%0.00%0.00%17.25%2.78%0.00%6.14%14.51%0.04%2.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)414.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)111.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)302.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)82.8151.7531.05
Cash Retained (M)302.08302.08302.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-82.81-51.75-31.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)219.28250.33271.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)757.95757.95757.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.330.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.330.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.98$6.22$7.65
Upside / Downside3.66%29.60%59.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)414.04409.89405.80401.74397.72393.74405.56
Payout Ratio27.04%39.63%52.22%64.82%77.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)111.95162.45211.92260.39307.87354.37375.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)150.84152.38153.92
Year 2 PV (M)182.72186.47190.25
Year 3 PV (M)208.47214.92221.49
Year 4 PV (M)228.87238.35248.13
Year 5 PV (M)244.62257.35270.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,179.387,553.237,942.49
Equity Value (M)8,194.898,602.709,026.90
Shares Outstanding (M)757.95757.95757.95
Fair Value$10.81$11.35$11.91
Upside / Downside125.25%136.46%148.12%

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