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Definitive Analysis

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CIMC Enric Holdings Limited (3899.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49.48 - $205.48$126.31
Multi-Stage$24.40 - $26.70$25.53
Blended Fair Value$75.92
Current Price$5.97
Upside1,171.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.02%12.06%0.260.200.170.110.170.120.060.000.080.14
YoY Growth--30.17%18.84%54.42%-35.26%48.06%87.18%0.00%-100.00%-45.25%64.86%
Dividend Yield--3.99%3.24%2.45%1.20%4.38%2.78%1.17%0.00%2.34%3.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,202.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)563.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,638.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)440.46275.29165.17
Cash Retained (M)1,638.801,638.801,638.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-440.46-275.29-165.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,198.341,363.511,473.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,131.522,131.522,131.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.640.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.640.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.900.96
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$49.48$126.31$205.48
Upside / Downside728.88%2,015.81%3,341.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,202.302,345.452,497.912,660.272,833.193,017.343,107.86
Payout Ratio25.59%38.47%51.35%64.23%77.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)563.50902.291,282.731,708.822,184.882,715.612,874.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)833.30841.20849.10
Year 2 PV (M)1,094.081,114.911,135.95
Year 3 PV (M)1,346.061,384.701,424.07
Year 4 PV (M)1,589.471,650.591,713.47
Year 5 PV (M)1,824.511,912.642,004.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,315.3547,504.1049,776.61
Equity Value (M)52,002.7654,408.1456,903.33
Shares Outstanding (M)2,131.522,131.522,131.52
Fair Value$24.40$25.53$26.70
Upside / Downside308.66%327.56%347.17%

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