Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chitec Technology Co., Ltd. (3430.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.48 - $71.69$54.48
Multi-Stage$77.08 - $84.59$80.77
Blended Fair Value$67.62
Current Price$77.00
Upside-12.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.55%1.68%1.962.941.730.420.372.230.640.240.150.77
YoY Growth---33.33%70.08%307.99%16.11%-83.64%250.61%166.68%54.49%-80.00%-53.49%
Dividend Yield--3.56%6.31%3.17%0.66%1.10%8.89%0.99%1.20%0.90%4.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)112.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.4214.018.41
Cash Retained (M)27.8027.8027.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.42-14.01-8.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.3813.7919.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.3934.3934.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.400.56
LTM Dividend per Share2.452.452.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.400.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.612.853.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Fair Value$41.48$54.48$71.69
Upside / Downside-46.12%-29.25%-6.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)112.09113.42114.77116.13117.51118.91122.48
Payout Ratio75.20%78.16%81.12%84.08%87.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.2988.6593.1097.64102.28107.02113.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate0.19%1.19%2.19%
Year 1 PV (M)82.4383.2584.07
Year 2 PV (M)80.4982.1083.73
Year 3 PV (M)78.4980.8783.29
Year 4 PV (M)76.4579.5582.74
Year 5 PV (M)74.3778.1682.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,258.522,373.502,493.12
Equity Value (M)2,650.752,777.432,909.06
Shares Outstanding (M)34.3934.3934.39
Fair Value$77.08$80.77$84.59
Upside / Downside0.11%4.89%9.86%

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