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Definitive Analysis

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Hoshino Resorts REIT, Inc. (3287.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - Hotel & MotelSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$242,993.46 - $424,357.03$320,444.20
Multi-Stage$351,528.67 - $385,042.71$367,970.34
Blended Fair Value$344,207.27
Current Price$219,600.00
Upside56.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.67%30.57%8,254.607,532.335,847.517,845.1410,778.7310,485.568,604.556,817.804,594.302,653.68
YoY Growth--9.59%28.81%-25.46%-27.22%2.80%21.86%26.21%48.40%73.13%363.11%
Dividend Yield--3.57%2.54%1.66%2.12%4.38%3.55%3.25%1.25%0.75%0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,051.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,513.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,537.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,010.301,256.44753.86
Cash Retained (M)3,537.933,537.933,537.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,010.30-1,256.44-753.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,527.632,281.492,784.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)0.540.540.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share2,804.074,187.835,110.34
LTM Dividend per Share11,956.0511,956.0511,956.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share2,804.074,187.835,110.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend14,760.1216,143.8817,066.39
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Fair Value$242,993.46$320,444.20$424,357.03
Upside / Downside10.65%45.92%93.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,051.4810,288.3910,530.8810,779.0911,033.1511,293.2011,631.99
Payout Ratio64.80%69.84%74.88%79.92%84.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,513.567,185.577,885.658,614.739,373.8110,163.8810,759.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Year 1 PV (M)6,618.116,683.406,748.70
Year 2 PV (M)6,689.336,821.976,955.92
Year 3 PV (M)6,730.696,931.887,137.04
Year 4 PV (M)6,745.387,015.547,293.75
Year 5 PV (M)6,736.317,075.247,427.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)157,990.02165,939.07174,204.92
Equity Value (M)191,509.83200,467.11209,768.00
Shares Outstanding (M)0.540.540.54
Fair Value$351,528.67$367,970.34$385,042.71
Upside / Downside60.08%67.56%75.34%

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