Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Choushimaru Co.,Ltd. (3075.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$572.29 - $869.36$711.78
Multi-Stage$702.82 - $771.37$736.45
Blended Fair Value$724.11
Current Price$1,501.00
Upside-51.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS14.95%0.00%12.4212.346.196.190.016.190.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.64%99.27%0.07%81,239.60%-99.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.83%0.76%0.49%0.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)841.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)839.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)168.25105.1663.10
Cash Retained (M)839.99839.99839.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-168.25-105.16-63.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)671.74734.83776.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.2813.2813.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share50.5955.3458.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share50.5955.3458.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend50.6955.4458.61
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate0.91%1.91%2.91%
Fair Value$572.29$711.78$869.36
Upside / Downside-61.87%-52.58%-42.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)841.27857.35873.73890.43907.45924.79952.54
Payout Ratio0.15%18.12%36.09%54.06%72.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.28155.37315.34481.38653.64832.31881.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate0.91%1.91%2.91%
Year 1 PV (M)140.05141.44142.82
Year 2 PV (M)256.23261.33266.48
Year 3 PV (M)352.57363.16373.95
Year 4 PV (M)431.54448.91466.79
Year 5 PV (M)495.33520.36546.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,656.088,043.038,445.46
Equity Value (M)9,331.819,778.2210,241.91
Shares Outstanding (M)13.2813.2813.28
Fair Value$702.82$736.45$771.37
Upside / Downside-53.18%-50.94%-48.61%

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