Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Reach Machinery Co Ltd (301596.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.35 - $21.29$17.66
Multi-Stage$26.58 - $29.24$27.89
Blended Fair Value$22.78
Current Price$89.28
Upside-74.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-19.26%0.00%0.050.070.610.160.160.160.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---21.44%-88.76%289.55%-5.76%5.87%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.06%0.14%1.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)73.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.3613.358.01
Cash Retained (M)73.9073.9073.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.36-13.35-8.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.5460.5565.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)59.7759.7759.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.011.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.011.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.431.561.65
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.35$17.66$21.29
Upside / Downside-83.93%-80.21%-76.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.78105.71104.65103.61102.57101.55104.59
Payout Ratio30.79%42.64%54.48%66.32%78.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.8845.0757.0168.7180.1791.3996.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)41.4041.8242.25
Year 2 PV (M)48.1149.1050.09
Year 3 PV (M)53.2654.9156.59
Year 4 PV (M)57.0959.4561.89
Year 5 PV (M)59.7862.8966.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,329.321,398.541,470.62
Equity Value (M)1,588.961,666.711,747.57
Shares Outstanding (M)59.7759.7759.77
Fair Value$26.58$27.89$29.24
Upside / Downside-70.22%-68.77%-67.25%

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