Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sinolong New Materials Co Ltd (301565.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.16 - $1.66$1.41
Multi-Stage$1.76 - $1.94$1.85
Blended Fair Value$1.63
Current Price$25.06
Upside-93.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.020.030.060.080.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---37.00%-28.72%-52.70%-22.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.06%0.05%0.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.958.094.85
Cash Retained (M)62.4262.4262.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.95-8.09-4.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.4754.3357.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)381.95381.95381.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.16$1.41$1.66
Upside / Downside-95.37%-94.39%-93.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.7364.0863.4462.8162.1861.5663.40
Payout Ratio3.57%20.86%38.14%55.43%72.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.3113.3624.2034.8145.2155.4058.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.44%9.44%9.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)12.0912.2112.33
Year 2 PV (M)19.8020.2020.61
Year 3 PV (M)25.7626.5627.37
Year 4 PV (M)30.2631.5132.81
Year 5 PV (M)33.5435.2837.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)550.98579.67609.55
Equity Value (M)672.42705.44739.77
Shares Outstanding (M)381.95381.95381.95
Fair Value$1.76$1.85$1.94
Upside / Downside-92.97%-92.63%-92.27%

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