Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Linktel Technologies Co., Ltd. (301205.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.51 - $9.47$7.95
Multi-Stage$9.26 - $10.16$9.70
Blended Fair Value$8.82
Current Price$96.94
Upside-90.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS1.30%0.00%0.090.130.020.010.010.090.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth---29.58%587.62%88.29%-26.15%-84.16%1,485.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.14%0.14%0.04%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)112.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)81.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.5014.068.44
Cash Retained (M)81.6181.6181.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.50-14.06-8.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)59.1167.5573.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)129.85129.85129.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.520.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.520.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.760.80
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-0.70%0.30%1.30%
Fair Value$6.51$7.95$9.47
Upside / Downside-93.28%-91.80%-90.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)112.49112.83113.17113.51113.85114.19117.62
Payout Ratio27.45%39.96%52.47%64.98%77.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.8845.0959.3873.7688.22102.77108.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-0.70%0.30%1.30%
Year 1 PV (M)40.6341.0441.45
Year 2 PV (M)48.2149.1950.18
Year 3 PV (M)53.9755.6157.29
Year 4 PV (M)58.1660.5462.99
Year 5 PV (M)61.0564.1967.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)940.75989.091,039.38
Equity Value (M)1,202.781,259.661,318.75
Shares Outstanding (M)129.85129.85129.85
Fair Value$9.26$9.70$10.16
Upside / Downside-90.44%-89.99%-89.52%

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